Based on last year’s results, the Brazilian economy in 2024 stands on solid foundations. Inflation should stay in check, interest rates are likely to continue to drop, and the stock market appears set for more growth. Property prices will probably remain on their upward trajectory and tourism should post yet another set of record results.
A quick recap on 2023
But before we jump into the Brazilian economy in 2024, let’s take a look at what it did in 2023.
GDP growth
Brazil surprised analysts in 2023 with a higher-than-predicted GDP growth. The final figure will be around 3% (confirmation comes in March), after particularly strong performances in Q2 and Q3.
Inflation
The country finished the year with an inflation rate of around 4.46%, the lowest since 2020.
Interest rates
The Brazilian Central Bank (BCB) made a further cut to the SELIC in December, bringing the rate down by 0.5% to 11.75%.
The stock market
The Sao Paulo B3 finished the year on a historic high, as reported in Diario do Nordeste. Brazilian stocks and shares gained 22.28% over the year and the index surpassed 130,825 points, its highest ever.
Brazilian real estate
Property prices ended the year with a 5.13% increase, according to December’s FipeZAP index. Maceió saw the highest uptick (16%), while prices in Rio de Janeiro rose by just 1.42%.
Real estate funds experienced a boom during 2023, with a growth of 9.7% during the first nine months of the year. The Northeast attracted the second-highest number of investors.
In the words of the Brazilian press, the Brazilian economy “presented growth above expectations, lower inflation and a positive trade balance higher than expected” in 2023.
The Brazilian economy in 2024
Brazil has just taken over the presidency of the G20, a post it will hold until November this year. This position places the country in the international spotlight, but what can we expect from the domestic economy over the next 12 months?
GDP growth in 2024
General consensus points to a lower increase this year, in line with most of the world’s leading economies. Analysts expect around 1.5% of Brazil's GDP by the end of December.
As the chart below shows, GDP growth will be considerably higher in 2025 and 2026 (yellow and black lines, respectively).
(Source: BCB)
Inflation in 2024
The cost of living index should continue to fall during 2024 and the BCB has set a target of 3.9% for the year.
Interest rates
In line with falling inflation, the SELIC should follow suit. The BCB expects to bring interest rates down to 9% by the end of 2024, with a further drop of 0.5% in 2025.
The stock market
Analysts believe the B3 will enjoy another buoyant year, on the back of improved confidence in the Brazilian economy in 2024. “The macroeconomic climate is showing a positive trend and the capital market reflects this perspective of improvement,” said Ricardo Coimbra, a professor at Fortaleza University, quoted in Diario do Nordeste.
Foreign Direct Investment
FDI levels shrank slightly during 2023 and ended the year at around US$59 billion. Analysts at the BCB predict higher levels in 2024, with an approximate total of US$70 billion.
Real estate in 2024
Lastly, what can we expect from the Brazilian property market this year? Lower interest rates will encourage yet more buyers to make a purchase decision. In addition, demand will continue to outstrip supply. The two factors will push prices upwards, although in moderate terms, much in line with the trend seen in 2023.
(Sources: BCB, Bloomberg, Diario do Nordeste, Foreign Policy, Brasil de Fato)
