The Costa del Sol property market, with Marbella at the helm, has experienced a busy year for sales on the back of sustained demand. Prices have risen in tandem and registered one of the highest upticks in the country. In this article, we ask if these trends will continue next year and look at what’s in store for the Costa del Sol property market in 2024.
Sales of Costa del Sol property
According to the latest data from the Registrars Association, some 35,500 properties changed hands on the Costa del Sol in the year to September. The figure is the fifth highest in the country, behind Madrid, Barcelona, Alicante and Valencia, and indicates a busy market.
However, sales dropped by 15.3% compared to the previous 12 months, in line with a national tendency. New-build sales fell by 15.3% and resale transactions by 11.2%.
Nevertheless, some parts of the Costa del Sol such as Marbella revealed a less pronounced decrease in sales. According to data provided at a recent real estate convention, transactions in Marbella dropped by 5 to 7% in the year to September, compared to a national rate of 14.9%.
Sales in 2024
The Costa del Sol property market in 2024 will continue the same underlying lack of supply as it has in 2023. Analysts are unanimous that “unprecedented demand” in tandem with a chronic shortage of new builds and supply of resale properties will continue to slow the transaction rate.
Prices for Costa del Sol real estate in 2024
The property portal Idealista reported that prices had risen by 13% in the year to November, an uptick that is 6% higher than the national rate. For their part, the Registrars Association said prices in Q3 rose by 5.5% compared to Q2 and Q3 2022. Marbella agents estimate that the year-on-year rise in the western part of the Costa del Sol is around 15%.
For next year, Idealista expects Costa del Sol real estate prices to continue registering much higher increases than Spain generally. Other agents in the sector echo this prediction, although they forecast slightly lower upticks than in 2023. They believe the lack of new-build supply and purchasing power among buyers will keep Marbella property prices on an upward trajectory.
Sustained demand from foreign buyers
The Costa del Sol continues to attract a high percentage of international buyers. In Q3, their market share reached 35.3%, the third highest in the country. British buyers accounted for 10.1%, followed by Germans (7%) and French (6.7%).
Analysts expect sustained demand from foreign buyers during 2024, with Marbella and the western Costa del Sol as the most favoured destinations.
Luxury property market share
The Costa del Sol generally has the largest proportion of high-end property in Spain, with 35% of all real estate priced at over €1 million. The so-called Golden Triangle of Benahavis, Estepona and Marbella has the biggest concentration of luxury homes, where 3% cost over €10.
Analysts believe this trend will continue into 2024, particularly as several developers have recently announced multi-million investments for next year.
(Sources: Registrars Association, Idealista, Malaga Hoy)
